Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south
This paper conducts a benefit–cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development (R&D) in the Global South. We extend a recent modeling exercise that used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the i...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Cambridge University Press
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134916 |
| _version_ | 1855533747304136704 |
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| author | Rosegrant, Mark W. Wong, Brad Sulser, Timothy B. Dubosse, Nancy Lybbert, Travis J. |
| author_browse | Dubosse, Nancy Lybbert, Travis J. Rosegrant, Mark W. Sulser, Timothy B. Wong, Brad |
| author_facet | Rosegrant, Mark W. Wong, Brad Sulser, Timothy B. Dubosse, Nancy Lybbert, Travis J. |
| author_sort | Rosegrant, Mark W. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This paper conducts a benefit–cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development (R&D) in the Global South. We extend a recent modeling exercise that used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the increased funding is estimated to increase agricultural output by 10%, reduce the prevalence of hunger by 35%, reduce food prices by 16%, and increase per capita incomes by 4% relative to a counterfactual where funding continues to rise on historical trends. Using an 8% discount rate, the net present value of the costs of agricultural R&D are estimated at $61 billion for the next 35 years, while the net present benefits in terms of net economic surplus (the sum of consumer and producer surplus) are estimated at $2.1 trillion. The central estimate of the benefit–cost ratio (BCR) is 33, consistent with previous research documenting high average returns to agricultural research and development. The central BCR reported in this study places the intervention at the 91st percentile of all previous Copenhagen Consensus BCRs in agriculture, and 87th percentile for all BCRs regardless of sector. Agricultural R&D is likely one of the best uses of resources for the remainder of the Sustainable Development Goals and decades beyond. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace134916 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| publisherStr | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1349162025-03-13T17:26:13Z Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south Rosegrant, Mark W. Wong, Brad Sulser, Timothy B. Dubosse, Nancy Lybbert, Travis J. agriculture agricultural innovation cost analysis food security hunger research global south This paper conducts a benefit–cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development (R&D) in the Global South. We extend a recent modeling exercise that used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the increased funding is estimated to increase agricultural output by 10%, reduce the prevalence of hunger by 35%, reduce food prices by 16%, and increase per capita incomes by 4% relative to a counterfactual where funding continues to rise on historical trends. Using an 8% discount rate, the net present value of the costs of agricultural R&D are estimated at $61 billion for the next 35 years, while the net present benefits in terms of net economic surplus (the sum of consumer and producer surplus) are estimated at $2.1 trillion. The central estimate of the benefit–cost ratio (BCR) is 33, consistent with previous research documenting high average returns to agricultural research and development. The central BCR reported in this study places the intervention at the 91st percentile of all previous Copenhagen Consensus BCRs in agriculture, and 87th percentile for all BCRs regardless of sector. Agricultural R&D is likely one of the best uses of resources for the remainder of the Sustainable Development Goals and decades beyond. 2023 2023-12-01T19:43:26Z 2023-12-01T19:43:26Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134916 en https://copenhagenconsensus.com/publication/halftime-sdgs-agricultural-rd Open Access Cambridge University Press Rosegrant, Mark W.; Wong, Brad; Sulser, Timothy B.; Dubosse, Nancy; and Lybbert, Travis J. 2023. Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south. Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis 14(S1): 181-205. https://doi.org/10.1017/bca.2023.27 |
| spellingShingle | agriculture agricultural innovation cost analysis food security hunger research global south Rosegrant, Mark W. Wong, Brad Sulser, Timothy B. Dubosse, Nancy Lybbert, Travis J. Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title | Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title_full | Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title_fullStr | Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title_full_unstemmed | Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title_short | Benefit-cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| title_sort | benefit cost analysis of increased funding for agricultural research and development in the global south |
| topic | agriculture agricultural innovation cost analysis food security hunger research global south |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134916 |
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