El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe
The frequency of El Niño occurrences in southern Africa surpasses the norm, resulting in erratic weather patterns that significantly impact food security, particularly in Zimbabwe. The effects of these weather patterns posit that El Niño occurrences have contributed to the diminished maize yields. T...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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MDPI
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134897 |
| _version_ | 1855519318497820672 |
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| author | Mugiyo, H. Magadzire, T. Choruma, Dennis Junior Chimonyo, Vimbayi Grace Petrova Manzou, R. Jiri, O. Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe |
| author_browse | Chimonyo, Vimbayi Grace Petrova Choruma, Dennis Junior Jiri, O. Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe Magadzire, T. Manzou, R. Mugiyo, H. |
| author_facet | Mugiyo, H. Magadzire, T. Choruma, Dennis Junior Chimonyo, Vimbayi Grace Petrova Manzou, R. Jiri, O. Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe |
| author_sort | Mugiyo, H. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The frequency of El Niño occurrences in southern Africa surpasses the norm, resulting in erratic weather patterns that significantly impact food security, particularly in Zimbabwe. The effects of these weather patterns posit that El Niño occurrences have contributed to the diminished maize yields. The objective is to give guidelines to policymakers, researchers, and agricultural stakeholders for taking proactive actions to address the immediate and lasting impacts of El Niño and enhance the resilience of the agricultural industry. This brief paper provides prospective strategies for farmers to anticipate and counteract the El Niño-influenced dry season projected for 2023/24 and beyond. The coefficient of determination R2 between yield and ENSO was low; 11 of the 13 El Niño seasons had a negative detrended yield anomaly, indicating the strong association between El Nino’s effects and the reduced maize yields in Zimbabwe. The R2 between the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and rainfall (43%) and between rainfall and yield (39%) indirectly affects the association between ONI and yield. To safeguard farmers’ livelihoods and improve their preparedness for droughts in future agricultural seasons, this paper proposes a set of strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making guidelines that the agriculture industry should follow. The importance of equipping farmers with weather and climate information and guidance on drought and heat stress was underscored, encompassing strategies such as planting resilient crop varieties, choosing resilient livestock, and implementing adequate fire safety measures. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace134897 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | MDPI |
| publisherStr | MDPI |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1348972025-12-08T10:29:22Z El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe Mugiyo, H. Magadzire, T. Choruma, Dennis Junior Chimonyo, Vimbayi Grace Petrova Manzou, R. Jiri, O. Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe el nino early warning systems strategies disaster risk reduction climate services weather rainfall drought heat stress mitigation crop production crop yield agricultural sector farmers The frequency of El Niño occurrences in southern Africa surpasses the norm, resulting in erratic weather patterns that significantly impact food security, particularly in Zimbabwe. The effects of these weather patterns posit that El Niño occurrences have contributed to the diminished maize yields. The objective is to give guidelines to policymakers, researchers, and agricultural stakeholders for taking proactive actions to address the immediate and lasting impacts of El Niño and enhance the resilience of the agricultural industry. This brief paper provides prospective strategies for farmers to anticipate and counteract the El Niño-influenced dry season projected for 2023/24 and beyond. The coefficient of determination R2 between yield and ENSO was low; 11 of the 13 El Niño seasons had a negative detrended yield anomaly, indicating the strong association between El Nino’s effects and the reduced maize yields in Zimbabwe. The R2 between the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) and rainfall (43%) and between rainfall and yield (39%) indirectly affects the association between ONI and yield. To safeguard farmers’ livelihoods and improve their preparedness for droughts in future agricultural seasons, this paper proposes a set of strategic, tactical, and operational decision-making guidelines that the agriculture industry should follow. The importance of equipping farmers with weather and climate information and guidance on drought and heat stress was underscored, encompassing strategies such as planting resilient crop varieties, choosing resilient livestock, and implementing adequate fire safety measures. 2023-11-16 2023-11-30T22:30:51Z 2023-11-30T22:30:51Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134897 en Open Access MDPI Mugiyo, H.; Magadzire, T.; Choruma, D. J.; Chimonyo, V. G. P.; Manzou, R.; Jiri, O.; Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe. 2023. El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe. Atmosphere, 14(11):1692. (Special issue: Joint Disasters of High Temperature and Drought) [doi: https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111692] |
| spellingShingle | el nino early warning systems strategies disaster risk reduction climate services weather rainfall drought heat stress mitigation crop production crop yield agricultural sector farmers Mugiyo, H. Magadzire, T. Choruma, Dennis Junior Chimonyo, Vimbayi Grace Petrova Manzou, R. Jiri, O. Mabhaudhi, Tafadzwanashe El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe |
| title | El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe |
| title_full | El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe |
| title_fullStr | El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe |
| title_full_unstemmed | El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe |
| title_short | El Niño’s effects on southern African agriculture in 2023/24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in Zimbabwe |
| title_sort | el nino s effects on southern african agriculture in 2023 24 and anticipatory action strategies to reduce the impacts in zimbabwe |
| topic | el nino early warning systems strategies disaster risk reduction climate services weather rainfall drought heat stress mitigation crop production crop yield agricultural sector farmers |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134897 |
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