Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro

Flash floods are increasingly frequent worldwide. Recent flooding in eastern Ethiopia resulted in casualties, destruction of property and interruptions of service. National flash flood forecasts made today primarily consider precipitation, putting less emphasis on surface processes. Enhancing accura...

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Autores principales: Semie, Addisu G, Diro, Gulilat T, Demissie, Teferi Dejene, Yigezu, Yonas M, Hailu, Binyam
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: MDPI 2023
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Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134737
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author Semie, Addisu G
Diro, Gulilat T
Demissie, Teferi Dejene
Yigezu, Yonas M
Hailu, Binyam
author_browse Demissie, Teferi Dejene
Diro, Gulilat T
Hailu, Binyam
Semie, Addisu G
Yigezu, Yonas M
author_facet Semie, Addisu G
Diro, Gulilat T
Demissie, Teferi Dejene
Yigezu, Yonas M
Hailu, Binyam
author_sort Semie, Addisu G
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Flash floods are increasingly frequent worldwide. Recent flooding in eastern Ethiopia resulted in casualties, destruction of property and interruptions of service. National flash flood forecasts made today primarily consider precipitation, putting less emphasis on surface processes. Enhancing accurate flash flood forecasts by accounting for surface processes and hydrological models together with a deeper understanding of heavy precipitation mechanisms is of paramount importance. To this end, an uncoupled WRF-Hydro model was calibrated for eastern Ethiopia to simulate extreme floods. Sensitivity analysis for August 2006 showed that infiltration runoff, hydraulic soil conductivity and saturated volumetric soil moisture with parameter values of 0.1, 1.5 and 1.0 produced realistic streamflow distribution. Extreme floods in March 2005 and April 2007 were further studied. The results showed that WRF-Hydro replicates temporal and spatial patterns well. Analysis using observational/reanalysis data revealed associated physical processes. Precipitation during these events exceeded long-term climatology and spanned wider areas in eastern Ethiopia. These heavy precipitation events are associated with strong upper-level westerly jet streams and rainfall-conducive circulation anomalies at lower levels. Positive outcomes from WRF-Hydro suggest operational implementation for flood monitoring and early warning systems in forecasting centers.
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spelling CGSpace1347372025-12-08T10:29:22Z Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro Semie, Addisu G Diro, Gulilat T Demissie, Teferi Dejene Yigezu, Yonas M Hailu, Binyam extreme events flooding forecasting flood damage agriculture Flash floods are increasingly frequent worldwide. Recent flooding in eastern Ethiopia resulted in casualties, destruction of property and interruptions of service. National flash flood forecasts made today primarily consider precipitation, putting less emphasis on surface processes. Enhancing accurate flash flood forecasts by accounting for surface processes and hydrological models together with a deeper understanding of heavy precipitation mechanisms is of paramount importance. To this end, an uncoupled WRF-Hydro model was calibrated for eastern Ethiopia to simulate extreme floods. Sensitivity analysis for August 2006 showed that infiltration runoff, hydraulic soil conductivity and saturated volumetric soil moisture with parameter values of 0.1, 1.5 and 1.0 produced realistic streamflow distribution. Extreme floods in March 2005 and April 2007 were further studied. The results showed that WRF-Hydro replicates temporal and spatial patterns well. Analysis using observational/reanalysis data revealed associated physical processes. Precipitation during these events exceeded long-term climatology and spanned wider areas in eastern Ethiopia. These heavy precipitation events are associated with strong upper-level westerly jet streams and rainfall-conducive circulation anomalies at lower levels. Positive outcomes from WRF-Hydro suggest operational implementation for flood monitoring and early warning systems in forecasting centers. 2023-09 2023-11-27T16:33:27Z 2023-11-27T16:33:27Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134737 en Open Access MDPI Semie AG, Diro GT, Demissie T, Yigezu YM, Hailu B. 2023. Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro. Water 15(18):3262.
spellingShingle extreme events
flooding
forecasting
flood damage
agriculture
Semie, Addisu G
Diro, Gulilat T
Demissie, Teferi Dejene
Yigezu, Yonas M
Hailu, Binyam
Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro
title Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro
title_full Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro
title_fullStr Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro
title_full_unstemmed Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro
title_short Towards Improved Flash Flood Forecasting over Dire Dawa, Ethiopia Using WRF-Hydro
title_sort towards improved flash flood forecasting over dire dawa ethiopia using wrf hydro
topic extreme events
flooding
forecasting
flood damage
agriculture
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/134737
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