Attribution of the record-breaking extreme precipitation events in July 2021 over central and eastern China to anthropogenic climate change
In July 2021, Typhoon In-Fa produced record-breaking extreme precipitation events (hereafter referred to as the 2021 EPEs) in central and eastern China, and caused serious socioeconomic losses and casualties. However, it is still unknown whether the 2021 EPEs can be attributed to anthropogenic clima...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
American Geophysical Union
2023
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/132045 |
| _version_ | 1855536120798904320 |
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| author | Wang, L. Gu, X. Slater, L. J. Lai, Y. Zheng, Y. Gong, J. Dembélé, Moctar Tosunoglu, F. Liu, J. Zhang, X. Kong, D. Li, J. |
| author_browse | Dembélé, Moctar Gong, J. Gu, X. Kong, D. Lai, Y. Li, J. Liu, J. Slater, L. J. Tosunoglu, F. Wang, L. Zhang, X. Zheng, Y. |
| author_facet | Wang, L. Gu, X. Slater, L. J. Lai, Y. Zheng, Y. Gong, J. Dembélé, Moctar Tosunoglu, F. Liu, J. Zhang, X. Kong, D. Li, J. |
| author_sort | Wang, L. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | In July 2021, Typhoon In-Fa produced record-breaking extreme precipitation events (hereafter referred to as the 2021 EPEs) in central and eastern China, and caused serious socioeconomic losses and casualties. However, it is still unknown whether the 2021 EPEs can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) and how the occurrence probabilities of precipitation events of a similar magnitude might evolve in the future. The 2021 EPEs in central (eastern) China occurred in the context of no linear trend (a significantly increasing trend at a rate of 4.44%/decade) in the region-averaged Rx5day (summer maximum 5-day accumulated precipitation) percentage precipitation anomaly (PPA), indicating that global warming might have no impact on the 2021 EPE in central China but might have impacted the 2021 EPE in eastern China by increasing the long-term trend of EPEs. Using the scaled generalized extreme value distribution, we detected a slightly negative (significantly positive) association of the Rx5day PPA time series in central (eastern) China with the global mean temperature anomaly, suggesting that global warming might have no (a detectable) contribution to the changes in occurrence probability of precipitation extremes like the 2021 EPEs in central (eastern) China. Historical attributions (1961–2020) showed that the likelihood of the 2021 EPE in central/eastern China decreased/increased by approximately +47% (-23% to +89%)/+55% (-45% to +201%) due to ACC. By the end of the 21st century, the likelihood of precipitation extremes similar to the 2021 EPE in central/eastern China under SSP585 is 14 (9–19)/15 (9–20) times higher than under historical climate conditions. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace132045 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| publisherStr | American Geophysical Union |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1320452025-12-08T10:11:39Z Attribution of the record-breaking extreme precipitation events in July 2021 over central and eastern China to anthropogenic climate change Wang, L. Gu, X. Slater, L. J. Lai, Y. Zheng, Y. Gong, J. Dembélé, Moctar Tosunoglu, F. Liu, J. Zhang, X. Kong, D. Li, J. precipitation anthropogenic climate change extreme weather events climate prediction forecasting climatology climate models time series analysis greenhouse gas emissions In July 2021, Typhoon In-Fa produced record-breaking extreme precipitation events (hereafter referred to as the 2021 EPEs) in central and eastern China, and caused serious socioeconomic losses and casualties. However, it is still unknown whether the 2021 EPEs can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change (ACC) and how the occurrence probabilities of precipitation events of a similar magnitude might evolve in the future. The 2021 EPEs in central (eastern) China occurred in the context of no linear trend (a significantly increasing trend at a rate of 4.44%/decade) in the region-averaged Rx5day (summer maximum 5-day accumulated precipitation) percentage precipitation anomaly (PPA), indicating that global warming might have no impact on the 2021 EPE in central China but might have impacted the 2021 EPE in eastern China by increasing the long-term trend of EPEs. Using the scaled generalized extreme value distribution, we detected a slightly negative (significantly positive) association of the Rx5day PPA time series in central (eastern) China with the global mean temperature anomaly, suggesting that global warming might have no (a detectable) contribution to the changes in occurrence probability of precipitation extremes like the 2021 EPEs in central (eastern) China. Historical attributions (1961–2020) showed that the likelihood of the 2021 EPE in central/eastern China decreased/increased by approximately +47% (-23% to +89%)/+55% (-45% to +201%) due to ACC. By the end of the 21st century, the likelihood of precipitation extremes similar to the 2021 EPE in central/eastern China under SSP585 is 14 (9–19)/15 (9–20) times higher than under historical climate conditions. 2023-09 2023-09-28T10:00:46Z 2023-09-28T10:00:46Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/132045 en Open Access American Geophysical Union Wang, L.; Gu, X.; Slater, L. J.; Lai, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Gong, J.; Dembele, Moctar; Tosunoglu, F.; Liu, J.; Zhang, X.; Kong, D.; Li, J. 2023. Attribution of the record-breaking extreme precipitation events in July 2021 over central and eastern China to anthropogenic climate change. Earth's Future, 11(9):e2023EF003613. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003613] |
| spellingShingle | precipitation anthropogenic climate change extreme weather events climate prediction forecasting climatology climate models time series analysis greenhouse gas emissions Wang, L. Gu, X. Slater, L. J. Lai, Y. Zheng, Y. Gong, J. Dembélé, Moctar Tosunoglu, F. Liu, J. Zhang, X. Kong, D. Li, J. Attribution of the record-breaking extreme precipitation events in July 2021 over central and eastern China to anthropogenic climate change |
| title | Attribution of the record-breaking extreme precipitation events in July 2021 over central and eastern China to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_full | Attribution of the record-breaking extreme precipitation events in July 2021 over central and eastern China to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_fullStr | Attribution of the record-breaking extreme precipitation events in July 2021 over central and eastern China to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Attribution of the record-breaking extreme precipitation events in July 2021 over central and eastern China to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_short | Attribution of the record-breaking extreme precipitation events in July 2021 over central and eastern China to anthropogenic climate change |
| title_sort | attribution of the record breaking extreme precipitation events in july 2021 over central and eastern china to anthropogenic climate change |
| topic | precipitation anthropogenic climate change extreme weather events climate prediction forecasting climatology climate models time series analysis greenhouse gas emissions |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/132045 |
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