Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia
Ethiopia recently experienced a large-scale war that lasted for more than two years. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which span several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides evidence on the immediate impacts of the conflict on households’ food sec...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131974 |
| _version_ | 1855536419023355904 |
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| author | Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari Hiluf |
| author_browse | Abay, Kibrom A. Abay, Mehari Hiluf Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Tafere, Kibrom |
| author_facet | Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari Hiluf |
| author_sort | Abay, Kibrom A. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Ethiopia recently experienced a large-scale war that lasted for more than two years. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which span several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides evidence on the immediate impacts of the conflict on households’ food security. We also assess potential mechanisms and evaluate impacts on proximate outcomes, including on livelihood activities and access to food markets. We use difference-in-differences and two-way fixed effects estimation to compare trends across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the war was associated with a 37 percentage points increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), we show that exposure to an additional battle leads to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate or severe food insecurity. The conflict was associated with significant reduction in access to food through supply chain disruptions and by curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were affected the most, whereas farming activities were relatively more resilient. Our estimates, which likely underestimate the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of large-scale conflict. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace131974 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1319742025-10-26T12:55:49Z Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari Hiluf armed conflicts food access food security households livelihoods resilience supply chain disruptions surveys war welfare Ethiopia recently experienced a large-scale war that lasted for more than two years. Using unique High-Frequency Phone Survey (HFPS) data, which span several months before and after the outbreak of the war, this paper provides evidence on the immediate impacts of the conflict on households’ food security. We also assess potential mechanisms and evaluate impacts on proximate outcomes, including on livelihood activities and access to food markets. We use difference-in-differences and two-way fixed effects estimation to compare trends across affected and unaffected regions (households) and before and after the outbreak of the war. Seven months into the conflict, we find that the war was associated with a 37 percentage points increase in the probability of moderate to severe food insecurity. Using the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data (ACLED), we show that exposure to an additional battle leads to a 1 percentage point increase in the probability of moderate or severe food insecurity. The conflict was associated with significant reduction in access to food through supply chain disruptions and by curtailing non-farm livelihood activities. Non-farm and wage related activities were affected the most, whereas farming activities were relatively more resilient. Our estimates, which likely underestimate the true average effects on the population, constitute novel evidence on the near-real-time impacts of large-scale conflict. Our work highlights the potential of HFPS to monitor active and large-scale conflicts, especially in contexts where conventional data sources are not immediately available. 2023-08 2023-09-22T17:59:34Z 2023-09-22T17:59:34Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131974 en Open Access Elsevier Abay, Kibrom A.; Tafere, Kibrom; Berhane, Guush; Chamberlin, Jordan; and Abay, Mehari H. 2023. Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia. Food Policy 119(August 2023): 102526. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2023.102526 |
| spellingShingle | armed conflicts food access food security households livelihoods resilience supply chain disruptions surveys war welfare Abay, Kibrom A. Tafere, Kibrom Berhane, Guush Chamberlin, Jordan Abay, Mehari Hiluf Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title | Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_full | Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_short | Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia |
| title_sort | near real time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war evidence from ethiopia |
| topic | armed conflicts food access food security households livelihoods resilience supply chain disruptions surveys war welfare |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131974 |
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