Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis

This study uses social accounting matrix multipliers and structural path analyses to estimate effects of COVID-19 and related fiscal stimuli on five household groups. The COVID-19 lockdown increased poverty in Pakistan by 15%, which was addressed using a $1.5 billion, digitally implemented Ehsaas Em...

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Main Authors: Davies, Stephen, Quershi, Tehseen, Rana, Abdul Wajid, Haider, Zeeshan, Raja, Sehrish
Format: Journal Article
Language:Inglés
Published: Wiley 2023
Subjects:
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131866
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author Davies, Stephen
Quershi, Tehseen
Rana, Abdul Wajid
Haider, Zeeshan
Raja, Sehrish
author_browse Davies, Stephen
Haider, Zeeshan
Quershi, Tehseen
Raja, Sehrish
Rana, Abdul Wajid
author_facet Davies, Stephen
Quershi, Tehseen
Rana, Abdul Wajid
Haider, Zeeshan
Raja, Sehrish
author_sort Davies, Stephen
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description This study uses social accounting matrix multipliers and structural path analyses to estimate effects of COVID-19 and related fiscal stimuli on five household groups. The COVID-19 lockdown increased poverty in Pakistan by 15%, which was addressed using a $1.5 billion, digitally implemented Ehsaas Emergency Cash (EEC) program that reached 14.8 million poor households. The study's models show that the largest multipliers from Ehsaas program finance were in agriculture, as a 1 Rupee shock adds 0.225 Rupee income to households. About 30% of that gain was estimated to go to poor farm families. In contrast, our models find that construction and trade growth added three times as much income to poor nonfarm and urban households as to farm households. However, those sectors added only one third as much total income as agriculture. From the structural path analysis, the importance of capital assets in generating income was seen, as was the possibility of greater poverty reduction from sectors with proportionally fewer intermediate inputs and more value added.
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language Inglés
publishDate 2023
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spelling CGSpace1318662024-11-07T09:48:58Z Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis Davies, Stephen Quershi, Tehseen Rana, Abdul Wajid Haider, Zeeshan Raja, Sehrish coronavirus coronavirus disease coronavirinae covid-19 economic growth households poverty social welfare development This study uses social accounting matrix multipliers and structural path analyses to estimate effects of COVID-19 and related fiscal stimuli on five household groups. The COVID-19 lockdown increased poverty in Pakistan by 15%, which was addressed using a $1.5 billion, digitally implemented Ehsaas Emergency Cash (EEC) program that reached 14.8 million poor households. The study's models show that the largest multipliers from Ehsaas program finance were in agriculture, as a 1 Rupee shock adds 0.225 Rupee income to households. About 30% of that gain was estimated to go to poor farm families. In contrast, our models find that construction and trade growth added three times as much income to poor nonfarm and urban households as to farm households. However, those sectors added only one third as much total income as agriculture. From the structural path analysis, the importance of capital assets in generating income was seen, as was the possibility of greater poverty reduction from sectors with proportionally fewer intermediate inputs and more value added. 2023-12 2023-09-14T20:15:54Z 2023-09-14T20:15:54Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131866 en Open Access Wiley Davies, Stephen; Quershi, Tehseen; Rana, Abdul Wajid; Haider, Zeeshan; and Raja, Sehrish. 2023. Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 45(1): 2017-2033. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13372
spellingShingle coronavirus
coronavirus disease
coronavirinae
covid-19
economic growth
households
poverty
social welfare
development
Davies, Stephen
Quershi, Tehseen
Rana, Abdul Wajid
Haider, Zeeshan
Raja, Sehrish
Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis
title Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis
title_full Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis
title_fullStr Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis
title_full_unstemmed Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis
title_short Assessing the impact of COVID-19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in Pakistan: A structural path analysis
title_sort assessing the impact of covid 19 and related interventions on poverty and economic growth in pakistan a structural path analysis
topic coronavirus
coronavirus disease
coronavirinae
covid-19
economic growth
households
poverty
social welfare
development
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131866
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