COVID-19 and the economic recovery in South Asia: Economywide modeling scenarios for Bangladesh and Nepal
We use economywide models to examine the economic recovery from COVID-19 shocks in Bangladesh and Nepal during 2020–2026. Declining labor productivity, capital underutilization, consumption shifts, and international investment shocks had significant and differential sectoral and country-level impact...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Wiley
2023
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131458 |
| _version_ | 1855525546782359552 |
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| author | Dorosh, Paul A. Pauw, Karl Pradesha, Angga Thurlow, James |
| author_browse | Dorosh, Paul A. Pauw, Karl Pradesha, Angga Thurlow, James |
| author_facet | Dorosh, Paul A. Pauw, Karl Pradesha, Angga Thurlow, James |
| author_sort | Dorosh, Paul A. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | We use economywide models to examine the economic recovery from COVID-19 shocks in Bangladesh and Nepal during 2020–2026. Declining labor productivity, capital underutilization, consumption shifts, and international investment shocks had significant and differential sectoral and country-level impacts in these countries. By 2026, GDP will be 6.9% and 13.9% lower in Bangladesh and Nepal, respectively, and the two countries will have an additional 3.3 million people in poverty compared to a no-COVID baseline. Regaining economic and welfare losses will require substantial investments in key industrial, agricultural, and tourism sectors, although tough policy decisions will be required given high levels of public debt. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace131458 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1314582024-11-07T09:41:17Z COVID-19 and the economic recovery in South Asia: Economywide modeling scenarios for Bangladesh and Nepal Dorosh, Paul A. Pauw, Karl Pradesha, Angga Thurlow, James agriculture capital consumption coronavirus coronavirus disease coronavirinae covid-19 economic recovery gross national product investment analysis industry labour policy innovation poverty productivity tourism welfare We use economywide models to examine the economic recovery from COVID-19 shocks in Bangladesh and Nepal during 2020–2026. Declining labor productivity, capital underutilization, consumption shifts, and international investment shocks had significant and differential sectoral and country-level impacts in these countries. By 2026, GDP will be 6.9% and 13.9% lower in Bangladesh and Nepal, respectively, and the two countries will have an additional 3.3 million people in poverty compared to a no-COVID baseline. Regaining economic and welfare losses will require substantial investments in key industrial, agricultural, and tourism sectors, although tough policy decisions will be required given high levels of public debt. 2023-12 2023-08-08T09:33:05Z 2023-08-08T09:33:05Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131458 en https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.134430 https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896294226_02 Open Access Wiley Dorosh, Paul A.; Pauw, Karl; Pradesha, Angga; and Thurlow, James. 2023. COVID-19 and the economic recovery in South Asia: Economywide modeling scenarios for Bangladesh and Nepal. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 45(4): 2056-2077. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13355 |
| spellingShingle | agriculture capital consumption coronavirus coronavirus disease coronavirinae covid-19 economic recovery gross national product investment analysis industry labour policy innovation poverty productivity tourism welfare Dorosh, Paul A. Pauw, Karl Pradesha, Angga Thurlow, James COVID-19 and the economic recovery in South Asia: Economywide modeling scenarios for Bangladesh and Nepal |
| title | COVID-19 and the economic recovery in South Asia: Economywide modeling scenarios for Bangladesh and Nepal |
| title_full | COVID-19 and the economic recovery in South Asia: Economywide modeling scenarios for Bangladesh and Nepal |
| title_fullStr | COVID-19 and the economic recovery in South Asia: Economywide modeling scenarios for Bangladesh and Nepal |
| title_full_unstemmed | COVID-19 and the economic recovery in South Asia: Economywide modeling scenarios for Bangladesh and Nepal |
| title_short | COVID-19 and the economic recovery in South Asia: Economywide modeling scenarios for Bangladesh and Nepal |
| title_sort | covid 19 and the economic recovery in south asia economywide modeling scenarios for bangladesh and nepal |
| topic | agriculture capital consumption coronavirus coronavirus disease coronavirinae covid-19 economic recovery gross national product investment analysis industry labour policy innovation poverty productivity tourism welfare |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131458 |
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