Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion
The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is afected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct inf...
| Autores principales: | , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Springer
2023
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131382 |
| _version_ | 1855520746260922368 |
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| author | Robertson, Richard D. Pinto, Alessandro de Cenacchi, Nicola |
| author_browse | Cenacchi, Nicola Pinto, Alessandro de Robertson, Richard D. |
| author_facet | Robertson, Richard D. Pinto, Alessandro de Cenacchi, Nicola |
| author_sort | Robertson, Richard D. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is afected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct infuence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our fndings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace131382 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1313822025-10-26T12:54:41Z Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion Robertson, Richard D. Pinto, Alessandro de Cenacchi, Nicola agriculture climate climate change ecosystems farmland vegetation The geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is afected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct infuence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our fndings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term. 2023-08 2023-08-02T20:52:03Z 2023-08-02T20:52:03Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131382 en Open Access Springer Robertson, Richard D.; De Pinto, Alessandro; and Cenacchi, Nicola. 2023. Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion. Climatic Change 176(8): 108. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03584-3 |
| spellingShingle | agriculture climate climate change ecosystems farmland vegetation Robertson, Richard D. Pinto, Alessandro de Cenacchi, Nicola Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion |
| title | Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion |
| title_full | Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion |
| title_fullStr | Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion |
| title_short | Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion |
| title_sort | assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion |
| topic | agriculture climate climate change ecosystems farmland vegetation |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/131382 |
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