Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation
Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd.
2016
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129475 |
| _version_ | 1855529432373002240 |
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| author | Dhingra, Madhur S Artois, Jean Robinson, Timothy P. Linard, Catherine Chaiban, Celia Xenarios, Ioannis Engler, Robin Liechti, Robin Kuznetsov, Dmitri Xiao, Xiangming Dobschuetz, Sophie Von Claes, Filip Newman, Scott H Dauphin, Gwenaëlle Gilbert, Marius |
| author_browse | Artois, Jean Chaiban, Celia Claes, Filip Dauphin, Gwenaëlle Dhingra, Madhur S Dobschuetz, Sophie Von Engler, Robin Gilbert, Marius Kuznetsov, Dmitri Liechti, Robin Linard, Catherine Newman, Scott H Robinson, Timothy P. Xenarios, Ioannis Xiao, Xiangming |
| author_facet | Dhingra, Madhur S Artois, Jean Robinson, Timothy P. Linard, Catherine Chaiban, Celia Xenarios, Ioannis Engler, Robin Liechti, Robin Kuznetsov, Dmitri Xiao, Xiangming Dobschuetz, Sophie Von Claes, Filip Newman, Scott H Dauphin, Gwenaëlle Gilbert, Marius |
| author_sort | Dhingra, Madhur S |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support a more systematic use of spatial cross-validation in large-scale disease suitability modelling compared to standard random cross-validation that can lead to unreliable measure of extrapolation accuracy. A global suitability model of the H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, a group of viruses that recently spread extensively in Asia and the US, shows in comparison a lower spatial extrapolation capacity than the HPAI H5N1 models, with a stronger association with intensively raised chicken densities and anthropogenic factors. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace129475 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateRange | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd. |
| publisherStr | eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd. |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1294752025-01-24T08:54:30Z Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation Dhingra, Madhur S Artois, Jean Robinson, Timothy P. Linard, Catherine Chaiban, Celia Xenarios, Ioannis Engler, Robin Liechti, Robin Kuznetsov, Dmitri Xiao, Xiangming Dobschuetz, Sophie Von Claes, Filip Newman, Scott H Dauphin, Gwenaëlle Gilbert, Marius mapping viruses highly pathogenic avian influenza avian influenza clade Global disease suitability models are essential tools to inform surveillance systems and enable early detection. We present the first global suitability model of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and demonstrate that reliable predictions can be obtained at global scale. Best predictions are obtained using spatial predictor variables describing host distributions, rather than land use or eco-climatic spatial predictor variables, with a strong association with domestic duck and extensively raised chicken densities. Our results also support a more systematic use of spatial cross-validation in large-scale disease suitability modelling compared to standard random cross-validation that can lead to unreliable measure of extrapolation accuracy. A global suitability model of the H5 clade 2.3.4.4 viruses, a group of viruses that recently spread extensively in Asia and the US, shows in comparison a lower spatial extrapolation capacity than the HPAI H5N1 models, with a stronger association with intensively raised chicken densities and anthropogenic factors. 2016-11-25 2023-03-10T14:36:17Z 2023-03-10T14:36:17Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129475 en Open Access eLife Sciences Publications, Ltd. Dhingra, Madhur S; Artois, Jean; Robinson, Timothy P.; Linard, Catherine; Chaiban, Celia; Xenarios, Ioannis; Engler, Robin; Liechti, Robin; Kuznetsov, Dmitri; Xiao, Xiangming; Dobschuetz, Sophie Von; Claes, Filip; Newman, Scott H; Dauphin, Gwenaëlle; Gilbert, Marius. 2016. Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation. eLife 5: |
| spellingShingle | mapping viruses highly pathogenic avian influenza avian influenza clade Dhingra, Madhur S Artois, Jean Robinson, Timothy P. Linard, Catherine Chaiban, Celia Xenarios, Ioannis Engler, Robin Liechti, Robin Kuznetsov, Dmitri Xiao, Xiangming Dobschuetz, Sophie Von Claes, Filip Newman, Scott H Dauphin, Gwenaëlle Gilbert, Marius Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation |
| title | Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation |
| title_full | Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation |
| title_fullStr | Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation |
| title_short | Global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 and H5Nx clade 2.3.4.4 viruses with spatial cross-validation |
| title_sort | global mapping of highly pathogenic avian influenza h5n1 and h5nx clade 2 3 4 4 viruses with spatial cross validation |
| topic | mapping viruses highly pathogenic avian influenza avian influenza clade |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129475 |
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