First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble
Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface mod...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
National Academy of Sciences
2014
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129363 |
| _version_ | 1855522672381788160 |
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| author | Dankers, Rutger Arnell, Nigel W. Clark, Douglas B. Falloon, Pete D. Fekete, Balázs M. Gosling, Simon N. Heinke, Jens Kim, Hyungjun Masaki, Yoshimitsu Satoh, Yusuke Stacke, Tobias Wada, Yoshihide Wisser, Dominik |
| author_browse | Arnell, Nigel W. Clark, Douglas B. Dankers, Rutger Falloon, Pete D. Fekete, Balázs M. Gosling, Simon N. Heinke, Jens Kim, Hyungjun Masaki, Yoshimitsu Satoh, Yusuke Stacke, Tobias Wada, Yoshihide Wisser, Dominik |
| author_facet | Dankers, Rutger Arnell, Nigel W. Clark, Douglas B. Falloon, Pete D. Fekete, Balázs M. Gosling, Simon N. Heinke, Jens Kim, Hyungjun Masaki, Yoshimitsu Satoh, Yusuke Stacke, Tobias Wada, Yoshihide Wisser, Dominik |
| author_sort | Dankers, Rutger |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20–45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5–30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace129363 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateRange | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| publisherStr | National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1293632025-12-08T10:11:39Z First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble Dankers, Rutger Arnell, Nigel W. Clark, Douglas B. Falloon, Pete D. Fekete, Balázs M. Gosling, Simon N. Heinke, Jens Kim, Hyungjun Masaki, Yoshimitsu Satoh, Yusuke Stacke, Tobias Wada, Yoshihide Wisser, Dominik model flooding Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20–45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydrograph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5–30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies. 2014-03-04 2023-03-10T14:33:46Z 2023-03-10T14:33:46Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129363 en Open Access National Academy of Sciences Dankers, Rutger; Arnell, Nigel W.; Clark, Douglas B.; Falloon, Pete D.; Fekete, Balázs M.; Gosling, Simon N.; Heinke, Jens; Kim, Hyungjun; Masaki, Yoshimitsu; Satoh, Yusuke; Stacke, Tobias; Wada, Yoshihide; Wisser, Dominik. 2014. First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 111: 3257-3261 |
| spellingShingle | model flooding Dankers, Rutger Arnell, Nigel W. Clark, Douglas B. Falloon, Pete D. Fekete, Balázs M. Gosling, Simon N. Heinke, Jens Kim, Hyungjun Masaki, Yoshimitsu Satoh, Yusuke Stacke, Tobias Wada, Yoshihide Wisser, Dominik First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble |
| title | First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble |
| title_full | First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble |
| title_fullStr | First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble |
| title_full_unstemmed | First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble |
| title_short | First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble |
| title_sort | first look at changes in flood hazard in the inter sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble |
| topic | model flooding |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/129363 |
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