Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia
Ethiopia’s agriculture-based economy generates highly seasonal outputs, with most production occurring during the long-rains Meher season and a lesser amount during the short-rains Belg season. Despite numerous studies detailing the economic impacts of Meher precipitation, there is relatively little...
| Autores principales: | , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
American Society of Civil Engineers
2023
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/128334 |
| _version_ | 1855520399190654976 |
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| author | Lala, Jonathan Regassa, Mekdim D. Zhang, Ying You, Liangzhi Block, Paul |
| author_browse | Block, Paul Lala, Jonathan Regassa, Mekdim D. You, Liangzhi Zhang, Ying |
| author_facet | Lala, Jonathan Regassa, Mekdim D. Zhang, Ying You, Liangzhi Block, Paul |
| author_sort | Lala, Jonathan |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Ethiopia’s agriculture-based economy generates highly seasonal outputs, with most production occurring during the long-rains Meher season and a lesser amount during the short-rains Belg season. Despite numerous studies detailing the economic impacts of Meher precipitation, there is relatively little consideration of other seasonal or subseasonal climate impacts in Ethiopia, with most economic models only considering aggregated annual-scale production to simulate the Ethiopian economy. This paper serves to address both seasonal and subseasonal effects of climate using a partial equilibrium agroeconomic model of Ethiopia. First, an annual-scale model is disaggregated into a seasonal time step, corresponding to the two major cropping seasons in Ethiopia. Second, the effect of yield gains from a subseasonal forecast–based planting strategy is considered in the updated model. We found that crop yields and corresponding economic indicators varied widely by season and location, and that subseasonal forecast–based management strategies can, on average, increase gross domestic product (GDP), per capita calorie consumption, and lead toward reduced poverty, warranting the inclusion of seasonal and subseasonal processes in economic models and agricultural planning. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace128334 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2023 |
| publishDateRange | 2023 |
| publishDateSort | 2023 |
| publisher | American Society of Civil Engineers |
| publisherStr | American Society of Civil Engineers |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1283342025-11-21T14:31:22Z Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia Lala, Jonathan Regassa, Mekdim D. Zhang, Ying You, Liangzhi Block, Paul agriculture economy production seasonality climate change models crops yields planting poverty income foods Ethiopia’s agriculture-based economy generates highly seasonal outputs, with most production occurring during the long-rains Meher season and a lesser amount during the short-rains Belg season. Despite numerous studies detailing the economic impacts of Meher precipitation, there is relatively little consideration of other seasonal or subseasonal climate impacts in Ethiopia, with most economic models only considering aggregated annual-scale production to simulate the Ethiopian economy. This paper serves to address both seasonal and subseasonal effects of climate using a partial equilibrium agroeconomic model of Ethiopia. First, an annual-scale model is disaggregated into a seasonal time step, corresponding to the two major cropping seasons in Ethiopia. Second, the effect of yield gains from a subseasonal forecast–based planting strategy is considered in the updated model. We found that crop yields and corresponding economic indicators varied widely by season and location, and that subseasonal forecast–based management strategies can, on average, increase gross domestic product (GDP), per capita calorie consumption, and lead toward reduced poverty, warranting the inclusion of seasonal and subseasonal processes in economic models and agricultural planning. 2023-02 2023-01-30T19:38:33Z 2023-01-30T19:38:33Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/128334 en Limited Access American Society of Civil Engineers Lala, Jonathan; Regassa, Mekdim D.; Zhang, Ying; You, Liangzhi; and Block, Paul. 2023. Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 149(2). https://doi.org/10.1061/JWRMD5.WRENG-5785 |
| spellingShingle | agriculture economy production seasonality climate change models crops yields planting poverty income foods Lala, Jonathan Regassa, Mekdim D. Zhang, Ying You, Liangzhi Block, Paul Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia |
| title | Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia |
| title_full | Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia |
| title_short | Incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of Ethiopia |
| title_sort | incorporating seasonality into an agroeconomic model of ethiopia |
| topic | agriculture economy production seasonality climate change models crops yields planting poverty income foods |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/128334 |
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