Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems
Forage grasses are central feed resources for livestock globally. In Ethiopian dairy systems, they serve as feed sources during both wet and dry seasons, yet escalating climate change could threaten forage supply. Here, we investigate projected climate change impacts on three forage grasses currentl...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Springer
2022
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/125703 |
| _version_ | 1855535021075464192 |
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| author | Brychkova, Galina Kekae, K. McKeown, Peter C. Hanson, Jean Jones, Christopher S. Thornton, Philip K. Spillane, Charles |
| author_browse | Brychkova, Galina Hanson, Jean Jones, Christopher S. Kekae, K. McKeown, Peter C. Spillane, Charles Thornton, Philip K. |
| author_facet | Brychkova, Galina Kekae, K. McKeown, Peter C. Hanson, Jean Jones, Christopher S. Thornton, Philip K. Spillane, Charles |
| author_sort | Brychkova, Galina |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Forage grasses are central feed resources for livestock globally. In Ethiopian dairy systems, they serve as feed sources during both wet and dry seasons, yet escalating climate change could threaten forage supply. Here, we investigate projected climate change impacts on three forage grasses currently recommended for Ethiopian dairy systems. We determine areas of geographical suitability for each species using three climate projections generated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) and calculate their ability to meet predicted dry matter demand under four scenarios for livestock intensification and land availability. By 2050, Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) is likely to be negatively affected by climate change in regions such as Tigray, while Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) and Napier grass (Cenchrus purpureus) may have improved suitability under future climates. Our findings suggest that feed demands could theoretically be met by production of these forage grasses under current and future climates. However, if land availability is reduced and herd composition shifts towards higher-productivity exotic breeds, forage resources will not meet cattle demand even with improved agronomic management. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace125703 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publishDateRange | 2022 |
| publishDateSort | 2022 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1257032025-02-19T13:42:41Z Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems Brychkova, Galina Kekae, K. McKeown, Peter C. Hanson, Jean Jones, Christopher S. Thornton, Philip K. Spillane, Charles animal feeding forage climate change goats small ruminants dairying Forage grasses are central feed resources for livestock globally. In Ethiopian dairy systems, they serve as feed sources during both wet and dry seasons, yet escalating climate change could threaten forage supply. Here, we investigate projected climate change impacts on three forage grasses currently recommended for Ethiopian dairy systems. We determine areas of geographical suitability for each species using three climate projections generated by General Circulation Models (GCMs) and calculate their ability to meet predicted dry matter demand under four scenarios for livestock intensification and land availability. By 2050, Buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) is likely to be negatively affected by climate change in regions such as Tigray, while Rhodes grass (Chloris gayana) and Napier grass (Cenchrus purpureus) may have improved suitability under future climates. Our findings suggest that feed demands could theoretically be met by production of these forage grasses under current and future climates. However, if land availability is reduced and herd composition shifts towards higher-productivity exotic breeds, forage resources will not meet cattle demand even with improved agronomic management. 2022-11-28 2022-11-29T18:07:02Z 2022-11-29T18:07:02Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/125703 en Open Access Springer Brychkova, G., Kekae, K., McKeown, P.C., Hanson, J., Jones, C.S., Thornton, P. and Spillane, C. 2022. Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems. Scientific Reports 12:20512. |
| spellingShingle | animal feeding forage climate change goats small ruminants dairying Brychkova, Galina Kekae, K. McKeown, Peter C. Hanson, Jean Jones, Christopher S. Thornton, Philip K. Spillane, Charles Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems |
| title | Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems |
| title_full | Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems |
| title_fullStr | Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems |
| title_short | Climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for Ethiopian dairy systems |
| title_sort | climate change and land use change impacts on future availability of forage grass species for ethiopian dairy systems |
| topic | animal feeding forage climate change goats small ruminants dairying |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/125703 |
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