Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change
Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by project...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
National Academy of Sciences
2014
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/121092 |
| _version_ | 1855515253733851136 |
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| author | Schewe, J. Heinke, Jens Gerten, D. Haddeland, Ingjerd Arnell, N.W. Clark, D.B. Dankers, R. Eisner, S. Fekete, B.M. Colón-González, F.J. Gosling, S.N. Kim, H. Liu, X. Masaki, Y. Portmannn, F.T. Satoh, Y. Stacke, T. Tang, Q. Wada, Y. Wisser, D. Albrecht, T. Frieler, K. Piontek, F. Warszawski, L. Kabat, P. |
| author_browse | Albrecht, T. Arnell, N.W. Clark, D.B. Colón-González, F.J. Dankers, R. Eisner, S. Fekete, B.M. Frieler, K. Gerten, D. Gosling, S.N. Haddeland, Ingjerd Heinke, Jens Kabat, P. Kim, H. Liu, X. Masaki, Y. Piontek, F. Portmannn, F.T. Satoh, Y. Schewe, J. Stacke, T. Tang, Q. Wada, Y. Warszawski, L. Wisser, D. |
| author_facet | Schewe, J. Heinke, Jens Gerten, D. Haddeland, Ingjerd Arnell, N.W. Clark, D.B. Dankers, R. Eisner, S. Fekete, B.M. Colón-González, F.J. Gosling, S.N. Kim, H. Liu, X. Masaki, Y. Portmannn, F.T. Satoh, Y. Stacke, T. Tang, Q. Wada, Y. Wisser, D. Albrecht, T. Frieler, K. Piontek, F. Warszawski, L. Kabat, P. |
| author_sort | Schewe, J. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m 3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace121092 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateRange | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| publisherStr | National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1210922025-12-08T10:11:39Z Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change Schewe, J. Heinke, Jens Gerten, D. Haddeland, Ingjerd Arnell, N.W. Clark, D.B. Dankers, R. Eisner, S. Fekete, B.M. Colón-González, F.J. Gosling, S.N. Kim, H. Liu, X. Masaki, Y. Portmannn, F.T. Satoh, Y. Stacke, T. Tang, Q. Wada, Y. Wisser, D. Albrecht, T. Frieler, K. Piontek, F. Warszawski, L. Kabat, P. climate change water Water scarcity severely impairs food security and economic prosperity in many countries today. Expected future population changes will, in many countries as well as globally, increase the pressure on available water resources. On the supply side, renewable water resources will be affected by projected changes in precipitation patterns, temperature, and other climate variables. Here we use a large ensemble of global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five global climate models and the latest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways) to synthesize the current knowledge about climate change impacts on water resources. We show that climate change is likely to exacerbate regional and global water scarcity considerably. In particular, the ensemble average projects that a global warming of 2 °C above present (approximately 2.7 °C above preindustrial) will confront an additional approximate 15% of the global population with a severe decrease in water resources and will increase the number of people living under absolute water scarcity (<500 m 3 per capita per year) by another 40% (according to some models, more than 100%) compared with the effect of population growth alone. For some indicators of moderate impacts, the steepest increase is seen between the present day and 2 °C, whereas indicators of very severe impacts increase unabated beyond 2 °C. At the same time, the study highlights large uncertainties associated with these estimates, with both global climate models and GHMs contributing to the spread. GHM uncertainty is particularly dominant in many regions affected by declining water resources, suggesting a high potential for improved water resource projections through hydrological model development. 2014-03-04 2022-09-05T10:20:16Z 2022-09-05T10:20:16Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/121092 en Open Access National Academy of Sciences Schewe, J., Heinke, J., Gerten, D., Haddeland, I., Arnell, N.W., Clark, D.B., Dankers, R., Eisner, S., Fekete, B.M., Colón-González, F.J., Gosling, S.N., Kim, H., Liu, X., Masaki, Y., Portmannn, F.T., Satoh, Y., Stacke, T., Tang, Q., Wada, Y., Wisser, D., Albrecht, T., Frieler, K., Piontek, F., Warszawski, L. and Kabat, P. 2014. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 111(9):3245-3250. |
| spellingShingle | climate change water Schewe, J. Heinke, Jens Gerten, D. Haddeland, Ingjerd Arnell, N.W. Clark, D.B. Dankers, R. Eisner, S. Fekete, B.M. Colón-González, F.J. Gosling, S.N. Kim, H. Liu, X. Masaki, Y. Portmannn, F.T. Satoh, Y. Stacke, T. Tang, Q. Wada, Y. Wisser, D. Albrecht, T. Frieler, K. Piontek, F. Warszawski, L. Kabat, P. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change |
| title | Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change |
| title_full | Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change |
| title_fullStr | Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change |
| title_full_unstemmed | Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change |
| title_short | Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change |
| title_sort | multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change |
| topic | climate change water |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/121092 |
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