Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal
Existing climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of the Expe...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Springer
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/115165 |
| _version_ | 1855540612799922176 |
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| author | Chapagain, D. Dhaubanjar, Sanita Bharati, Luna |
| author_browse | Bharati, Luna Chapagain, D. Dhaubanjar, Sanita |
| author_facet | Chapagain, D. Dhaubanjar, Sanita Bharati, Luna |
| author_sort | Chapagain, D. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Existing climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and their sectoral implications in the Karnali Basin in western Nepal. First, future projections of 26 climate indices relevant to six climate-sensitive sectors in Karnali are made for the near (2021–2045), mid (2046–2070), and far (2071–2095) future for low-and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) using bias-corrected ensembles of 19 regional climate models from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Second, a qualitative analysis based on expert interviews and a literature review on the impact of the projected climate extremes on the climate-sensitive sectors is undertaken. Both the temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to deviate significantly from the historical reference already from the near future with increased occurrences of extreme events. Winter in the highlands is expected to become warmer and dryer. The hot and wet tropical summer in the lowlands will become hotter with longer warm spells and fewer cold days. Low-intensity precipitation events will decline, but the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The compounding effects of the increase in extreme temperature and precipitation events will have largely negative implications for the six climate-sensitive sectors considered here. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace115165 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1151652025-02-19T13:42:52Z Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal Chapagain, D. Dhaubanjar, Sanita Bharati, Luna climate change extreme weather events forecasting trends temperature precipitation river basins highlands lowland rain monsoons natural disasters impact assessment water resources energy agriculture food security forests biodiversity tourism public health Existing climate projections and impact assessments in Nepal only consider a limited number of generic climate indices such as means. Few studies have explored climate extremes and their sectoral implications. This study evaluates future scenarios of extreme climate indices from the list of the Expert Team on Sector-specific Climate Indices (ET-SCI) and their sectoral implications in the Karnali Basin in western Nepal. First, future projections of 26 climate indices relevant to six climate-sensitive sectors in Karnali are made for the near (2021–2045), mid (2046–2070), and far (2071–2095) future for low-and high-emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) using bias-corrected ensembles of 19 regional climate models from the COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment for South Asia (CORDEX-SA). Second, a qualitative analysis based on expert interviews and a literature review on the impact of the projected climate extremes on the climate-sensitive sectors is undertaken. Both the temperature and precipitation patterns are projected to deviate significantly from the historical reference already from the near future with increased occurrences of extreme events. Winter in the highlands is expected to become warmer and dryer. The hot and wet tropical summer in the lowlands will become hotter with longer warm spells and fewer cold days. Low-intensity precipitation events will decline, but the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The compounding effects of the increase in extreme temperature and precipitation events will have largely negative implications for the six climate-sensitive sectors considered here. 2021-09 2021-09-26T21:11:24Z 2021-09-26T21:11:24Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/115165 en Open Access Springer Chapagain, D.; Dhaubanjar, Sanita; Bharati, Luna. 2021. Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal. Climatic Change, 168(1-2):8. [doi: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03216-8] |
| spellingShingle | climate change extreme weather events forecasting trends temperature precipitation river basins highlands lowland rain monsoons natural disasters impact assessment water resources energy agriculture food security forests biodiversity tourism public health Chapagain, D. Dhaubanjar, Sanita Bharati, Luna Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal |
| title | Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal |
| title_full | Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal |
| title_fullStr | Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal |
| title_full_unstemmed | Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal |
| title_short | Unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western Nepal |
| title_sort | unpacking future climate extremes and their sectoral implications in western nepal |
| topic | climate change extreme weather events forecasting trends temperature precipitation river basins highlands lowland rain monsoons natural disasters impact assessment water resources energy agriculture food security forests biodiversity tourism public health |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/115165 |
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