Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach
Context There is growing recognition that food systems must adapt to become more sustainable and equitable. Consequently, in developing country contexts, there is increasing momentum away from traditional producer-facing value chain upgrades towards efforts to increase both the availability and affo...
| Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
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| Formato: | Journal Article |
| Lenguaje: | Inglés |
| Publicado: |
Elsevier
2021
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| Materias: | |
| Acceso en línea: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/111365 |
| _version_ | 1855523147968675840 |
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| author | Cooper, G.S. Rich, Karl M. Shankar, B. Rana, V. Ratna, N.N. Kadiyala, S. Alam, M.J. Nadagouda, S.B. |
| author_browse | Alam, M.J. Cooper, G.S. Kadiyala, S. Nadagouda, S.B. Rana, V. Ratna, N.N. Rich, Karl M. Shankar, B. |
| author_facet | Cooper, G.S. Rich, Karl M. Shankar, B. Rana, V. Ratna, N.N. Kadiyala, S. Alam, M.J. Nadagouda, S.B. |
| author_sort | Cooper, G.S. |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Context There is growing recognition that food systems must adapt to become more sustainable and equitable. Consequently, in developing country contexts, there is increasing momentum away from traditional producer-facing value chain upgrades towards efforts to increase both the availability and affordability of nutritious foods at the consumer level. However, such goals must navigate the inherent complexities of agricultural value chains, which involve multiple interactions, feedbacks and unintended consequences, including important but often surprising trade-offs between producers and consumers. Objective and methods Based around the 'Loop' horticultural aggregation scheme of Digital Green in Bihar, India, we develop a system dynamics modelling framework to survey the value chain trade-offs emerging from upgrades that aim to improve the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail-oriented markets. We model the processes of horticultural production, aggregation, marketing, and retailing – searching for futures that are ‘win-win-win’ for: (i) the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail markets, (ii) the profits of farmers participating in aggregation, and (iii) the sustainability of the initial scheme for Digital Green as an organisation. We simulate two internal upgrades to aggregation and two upgrades to the wider enabling environment through a series of 5000 Monte Carlo trajectories – designed to explore the plausible future dynamics of the three outcome dimensions relative to the baseline. Results We find that ‘win-win-win’ futures cannot be achieved by internal changes to the aggregation scheme alone, emerging under a narrow range of scenarios that boost supplies to the small retail market whilst simultaneously supporting the financial takeaways of farmers. In contrast, undesirable producer versus consumer trade-offs emerge as unintended consequences of scaling-up aggregation and the introduction of market-based cold storage. Significance This approach furthers ongoing efforts to capture complex value chain processes, outcomes and upgrades within system dynamics modelling frameworks, before scanning the horizon of plausible external scenarios, internal dynamics and unintended trade-offs to identify ‘win-win-win’ futures for all. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace111365 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| publisherStr | Elsevier |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1113652024-05-01T08:16:54Z Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach Cooper, G.S. Rich, Karl M. Shankar, B. Rana, V. Ratna, N.N. Kadiyala, S. Alam, M.J. Nadagouda, S.B. agriculture food systems value chains food security livestock Context There is growing recognition that food systems must adapt to become more sustainable and equitable. Consequently, in developing country contexts, there is increasing momentum away from traditional producer-facing value chain upgrades towards efforts to increase both the availability and affordability of nutritious foods at the consumer level. However, such goals must navigate the inherent complexities of agricultural value chains, which involve multiple interactions, feedbacks and unintended consequences, including important but often surprising trade-offs between producers and consumers. Objective and methods Based around the 'Loop' horticultural aggregation scheme of Digital Green in Bihar, India, we develop a system dynamics modelling framework to survey the value chain trade-offs emerging from upgrades that aim to improve the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail-oriented markets. We model the processes of horticultural production, aggregation, marketing, and retailing – searching for futures that are ‘win-win-win’ for: (i) the availability of fruits and vegetables in small retail markets, (ii) the profits of farmers participating in aggregation, and (iii) the sustainability of the initial scheme for Digital Green as an organisation. We simulate two internal upgrades to aggregation and two upgrades to the wider enabling environment through a series of 5000 Monte Carlo trajectories – designed to explore the plausible future dynamics of the three outcome dimensions relative to the baseline. Results We find that ‘win-win-win’ futures cannot be achieved by internal changes to the aggregation scheme alone, emerging under a narrow range of scenarios that boost supplies to the small retail market whilst simultaneously supporting the financial takeaways of farmers. In contrast, undesirable producer versus consumer trade-offs emerge as unintended consequences of scaling-up aggregation and the introduction of market-based cold storage. Significance This approach furthers ongoing efforts to capture complex value chain processes, outcomes and upgrades within system dynamics modelling frameworks, before scanning the horizon of plausible external scenarios, internal dynamics and unintended trade-offs to identify ‘win-win-win’ futures for all. 2021-05 2021-02-17T10:39:50Z 2021-02-17T10:39:50Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/111365 en Open Access Elsevier Cooper, G.S., Rich, K.M., Shankar, B., Rana, V., Ratna, N.N., Kadiyala, S., Alam, M.J. and Nadagouda, S.B. 2021. Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach. Agricultural Systems 190: 103096. |
| spellingShingle | agriculture food systems value chains food security livestock Cooper, G.S. Rich, Karl M. Shankar, B. Rana, V. Ratna, N.N. Kadiyala, S. Alam, M.J. Nadagouda, S.B. Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach |
| title | Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach |
| title_full | Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach |
| title_fullStr | Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach |
| title_short | Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach |
| title_sort | identifying win win win futures from inequitable value chain trade offs a system dynamics approach |
| topic | agriculture food systems value chains food security livestock |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/111365 |
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