Climate change, agriculture and international migration nexus: African youth perspective

Climate change is expected to contribute to the migration of tens of millions of people in the coming decades. While some migration will be caused by sudden-onset events, such as floods, the majority will be due to the long-term impact of climate change on livelihoods. Agrarian countries are particu...

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Autores principales: Bezu, Sosina, Demissie, Teferi Dejene, Abebaw, Degnet, Mungai, Catherine, Samuel, Seble, Radeny, Maren A.O., Huyer, Sophia, Solomon, Dawit
Formato: Artículo preliminar
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security 2020
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/110278
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author Bezu, Sosina
Demissie, Teferi Dejene
Abebaw, Degnet
Mungai, Catherine
Samuel, Seble
Radeny, Maren A.O.
Huyer, Sophia
Solomon, Dawit
author_browse Abebaw, Degnet
Bezu, Sosina
Demissie, Teferi Dejene
Huyer, Sophia
Mungai, Catherine
Radeny, Maren A.O.
Samuel, Seble
Solomon, Dawit
author_facet Bezu, Sosina
Demissie, Teferi Dejene
Abebaw, Degnet
Mungai, Catherine
Samuel, Seble
Radeny, Maren A.O.
Huyer, Sophia
Solomon, Dawit
author_sort Bezu, Sosina
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Climate change is expected to contribute to the migration of tens of millions of people in the coming decades. While some migration will be caused by sudden-onset events, such as floods, the majority will be due to the long-term impact of climate change on livelihoods. Agrarian countries are particularly vulnerable to this climate change impact as the majority of their people depend on environmental resources and vulnerable ecosystems for their livelihoods. This study explores the complex nexus between climate change, agriculture and international migration in East Africa, with a focus on the youth perspective. We provide an extensive review of the empirical literature on the climate-migration link. Based on regional climate modeling, we also show the trends of climate extremes for East Africa and provide climate projections for the coming decades. Our study also examines the quantitative relationship between climate variables and migration stock for case study countries. Results from our climate model show that the East African region will experience longer and more frequent droughts than those associated with the current climate, suggesting that agricultural livelihoods in East Africa will become more vulnerable in the coming decades. The region experienced significant growth in outmigration in the past few decades and climate change is likely to accelerate this migration trend. Our quantitative analysis provides suggestive evidence to support this hypothesis. The analysis shows that a higher number of average dry days for a country is positively correlated with higher stock of emigrants from that country. The prospect of youth international migration from East Africa is high and likely to increase with climate change. East Africa’s youth population is not only the highest in the continent, but is more likely to be unemployed, less encumbered with family responsibilities and have more education than the previous generation. All of these factors support the likelihood of higher youth migration in the context of climate change.
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spelling CGSpace1102782024-11-22T12:11:49Z Climate change, agriculture and international migration nexus: African youth perspective Bezu, Sosina Demissie, Teferi Dejene Abebaw, Degnet Mungai, Catherine Samuel, Seble Radeny, Maren A.O. Huyer, Sophia Solomon, Dawit climate change agriculture migration youth food security Climate change is expected to contribute to the migration of tens of millions of people in the coming decades. While some migration will be caused by sudden-onset events, such as floods, the majority will be due to the long-term impact of climate change on livelihoods. Agrarian countries are particularly vulnerable to this climate change impact as the majority of their people depend on environmental resources and vulnerable ecosystems for their livelihoods. This study explores the complex nexus between climate change, agriculture and international migration in East Africa, with a focus on the youth perspective. We provide an extensive review of the empirical literature on the climate-migration link. Based on regional climate modeling, we also show the trends of climate extremes for East Africa and provide climate projections for the coming decades. Our study also examines the quantitative relationship between climate variables and migration stock for case study countries. Results from our climate model show that the East African region will experience longer and more frequent droughts than those associated with the current climate, suggesting that agricultural livelihoods in East Africa will become more vulnerable in the coming decades. The region experienced significant growth in outmigration in the past few decades and climate change is likely to accelerate this migration trend. Our quantitative analysis provides suggestive evidence to support this hypothesis. The analysis shows that a higher number of average dry days for a country is positively correlated with higher stock of emigrants from that country. The prospect of youth international migration from East Africa is high and likely to increase with climate change. East Africa’s youth population is not only the highest in the continent, but is more likely to be unemployed, less encumbered with family responsibilities and have more education than the previous generation. All of these factors support the likelihood of higher youth migration in the context of climate change. 2020-11-23 2020-11-23T20:43:00Z 2020-11-23T20:43:00Z Working Paper https://hdl.handle.net/10568/110278 en Open Access application/pdf CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security Bezu S, Demissie T, Abebaw D, Mungai C, Samuel S, Radeny M, Huyer S, Solomon D. 2020. Climate change, agriculture and international migration nexus: African youth perspective. CCAFS Working Paper no. 324. Wageningen, the Netherlands: CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS).
spellingShingle climate change
agriculture
migration
youth
food security
Bezu, Sosina
Demissie, Teferi Dejene
Abebaw, Degnet
Mungai, Catherine
Samuel, Seble
Radeny, Maren A.O.
Huyer, Sophia
Solomon, Dawit
Climate change, agriculture and international migration nexus: African youth perspective
title Climate change, agriculture and international migration nexus: African youth perspective
title_full Climate change, agriculture and international migration nexus: African youth perspective
title_fullStr Climate change, agriculture and international migration nexus: African youth perspective
title_full_unstemmed Climate change, agriculture and international migration nexus: African youth perspective
title_short Climate change, agriculture and international migration nexus: African youth perspective
title_sort climate change agriculture and international migration nexus african youth perspective
topic climate change
agriculture
migration
youth
food security
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/110278
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