A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam
The main objectives of this study were to model various scenarios of African swine fever (ASF) virus transmission among farms in Vietnam and to evaluate the impact of control strategies using North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). A total of 7,882 pig farms in the Red River Delta (RRD)...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
Hindawi Limited
2021
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/109236 |
| _version_ | 1855539272049754112 |
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| author | Hu Suk Lee Thakur, K.K. Vuong Nghia Bui Thanh Long Pham Anh Ngoc Bui Tung Duy Dao Vu Thi Thanh Wieland, Barbara |
| author_browse | Anh Ngoc Bui Hu Suk Lee Thakur, K.K. Thanh Long Pham Tung Duy Dao Vu Thi Thanh Vuong Nghia Bui Wieland, Barbara |
| author_facet | Hu Suk Lee Thakur, K.K. Vuong Nghia Bui Thanh Long Pham Anh Ngoc Bui Tung Duy Dao Vu Thi Thanh Wieland, Barbara |
| author_sort | Hu Suk Lee |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | The main objectives of this study were to model various scenarios of African swine fever (ASF) virus transmission among farms in Vietnam and to evaluate the impact of control strategies using North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). A total of 7,882 pig farms in the Red River Delta (RRD) region were obtained from the General Statistics Office, and then, random points corresponding to the number of farms in each province were generated as exact farm locations were not available. A total of 10 models were developed, including movement control scenarios. In addition, we conducted sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of indirect contact transmission probability (TP). Overall, the indirect contact exhibited an important role in transmitting the ASF virus. In order to minimize ASF transmission between farms, we found that movement restriction needed to reach a certain level (approximately between 50% and 75%) and that the restriction had to be applied in a timely manner. This study offers valuable insight into how ASF virus can be transmitted via direct and indirect contact and controlled among farms under the various simulation scenarios. Our results suggest that the enforcement of movement restriction was an effective control measure as soon as the outbreaks were reported. In addition, this study provided evidence that high standards of biosecurity can contribute to the reduction of disease spread. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace109236 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2021 |
| publishDateRange | 2021 |
| publishDateSort | 2021 |
| publisher | Hindawi Limited |
| publisherStr | Hindawi Limited |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1092362025-08-15T13:22:54Z A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam Hu Suk Lee Thakur, K.K. Vuong Nghia Bui Thanh Long Pham Anh Ngoc Bui Tung Duy Dao Vu Thi Thanh Wieland, Barbara african swine fever swine animal diseases The main objectives of this study were to model various scenarios of African swine fever (ASF) virus transmission among farms in Vietnam and to evaluate the impact of control strategies using North American Animal Disease Spread Model (NAADSM). A total of 7,882 pig farms in the Red River Delta (RRD) region were obtained from the General Statistics Office, and then, random points corresponding to the number of farms in each province were generated as exact farm locations were not available. A total of 10 models were developed, including movement control scenarios. In addition, we conducted sensitivity analysis to assess the impact of indirect contact transmission probability (TP). Overall, the indirect contact exhibited an important role in transmitting the ASF virus. In order to minimize ASF transmission between farms, we found that movement restriction needed to reach a certain level (approximately between 50% and 75%) and that the restriction had to be applied in a timely manner. This study offers valuable insight into how ASF virus can be transmitted via direct and indirect contact and controlled among farms under the various simulation scenarios. Our results suggest that the enforcement of movement restriction was an effective control measure as soon as the outbreaks were reported. In addition, this study provided evidence that high standards of biosecurity can contribute to the reduction of disease spread. 2021-05 2020-09-07T07:13:32Z 2020-09-07T07:13:32Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/109236 en Open Access Hindawi Limited Hu Suk Lee, Thakur, K.K., Vuong Nghia Bui, Thanh Long Pham, Anh Ngoc Bui, Tung Duy Dao, Vu Thi Thanh and Wieland, B. 2021. A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 68(3): 1384–1391. |
| spellingShingle | african swine fever swine animal diseases Hu Suk Lee Thakur, K.K. Vuong Nghia Bui Thanh Long Pham Anh Ngoc Bui Tung Duy Dao Vu Thi Thanh Wieland, Barbara A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam |
| title | A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam |
| title_full | A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam |
| title_fullStr | A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam |
| title_full_unstemmed | A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam |
| title_short | A stochastic simulation model of African swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the Red River Delta region in Vietnam |
| title_sort | stochastic simulation model of african swine fever transmission in domestic pig farms in the red river delta region in vietnam |
| topic | african swine fever swine animal diseases |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/109236 |
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