Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments

Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for gr...

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Autores principales: Sitas, Nadia, Harmáčková, Zuzana V, Anticamara, Jonathan A., Arneth, Almut, Badola, Ruchi, Biggs, Reinette, Blanchard, Ryan, Brotons, Lluis, Cantele, Matthew, Coetzer, Kaera, DasGupta, Rajarshi, Belder, Eefje den, Ghosh, Sonali, Guisan, Antoine, Gundimeda, Haripriya, Hamann, Maike, Harrison, Paula A., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hauck, Jennifer, Klatt, Brian J, Kok, Kasper, Krug, Rainer M, Niamir, Aidin, O'Farrell, Patrick J., Okayasu, Sana, Palomo, Ignacio, Pereira, Laura, Riordan, Philip, Santos Martín, Fernando, Selomane, Odirilwe, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Valle, Mireia
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Resilience Alliance, Inc. 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/107767
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author Sitas, Nadia
Harmáčková, Zuzana V
Anticamara, Jonathan A.
Arneth, Almut
Badola, Ruchi
Biggs, Reinette
Blanchard, Ryan
Brotons, Lluis
Cantele, Matthew
Coetzer, Kaera
DasGupta, Rajarshi
Belder, Eefje den
Ghosh, Sonali
Guisan, Antoine
Gundimeda, Haripriya
Hamann, Maike
Harrison, Paula A.
Hashimoto, Shizuka
Hauck, Jennifer
Klatt, Brian J
Kok, Kasper
Krug, Rainer M
Niamir, Aidin
O'Farrell, Patrick J.
Okayasu, Sana
Palomo, Ignacio
Pereira, Laura
Riordan, Philip
Santos Martín, Fernando
Selomane, Odirilwe
Shin, Yunne-Jai
Valle, Mireia
author_browse Anticamara, Jonathan A.
Arneth, Almut
Badola, Ruchi
Belder, Eefje den
Biggs, Reinette
Blanchard, Ryan
Brotons, Lluis
Cantele, Matthew
Coetzer, Kaera
DasGupta, Rajarshi
Ghosh, Sonali
Guisan, Antoine
Gundimeda, Haripriya
Hamann, Maike
Harmáčková, Zuzana V
Harrison, Paula A.
Hashimoto, Shizuka
Hauck, Jennifer
Klatt, Brian J
Kok, Kasper
Krug, Rainer M
Niamir, Aidin
O'Farrell, Patrick J.
Okayasu, Sana
Palomo, Ignacio
Pereira, Laura
Riordan, Philip
Santos Martín, Fernando
Selomane, Odirilwe
Shin, Yunne-Jai
Sitas, Nadia
Valle, Mireia
author_facet Sitas, Nadia
Harmáčková, Zuzana V
Anticamara, Jonathan A.
Arneth, Almut
Badola, Ruchi
Biggs, Reinette
Blanchard, Ryan
Brotons, Lluis
Cantele, Matthew
Coetzer, Kaera
DasGupta, Rajarshi
Belder, Eefje den
Ghosh, Sonali
Guisan, Antoine
Gundimeda, Haripriya
Hamann, Maike
Harrison, Paula A.
Hashimoto, Shizuka
Hauck, Jennifer
Klatt, Brian J
Kok, Kasper
Krug, Rainer M
Niamir, Aidin
O'Farrell, Patrick J.
Okayasu, Sana
Palomo, Ignacio
Pereira, Laura
Riordan, Philip
Santos Martín, Fernando
Selomane, Odirilwe
Shin, Yunne-Jai
Valle, Mireia
author_sort Sitas, Nadia
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.
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institution CGIAR Consortium
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publishDate 2019
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spelling CGSpace1077672025-12-08T09:54:28Z Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments Sitas, Nadia Harmáčková, Zuzana V Anticamara, Jonathan A. Arneth, Almut Badola, Ruchi Biggs, Reinette Blanchard, Ryan Brotons, Lluis Cantele, Matthew Coetzer, Kaera DasGupta, Rajarshi Belder, Eefje den Ghosh, Sonali Guisan, Antoine Gundimeda, Haripriya Hamann, Maike Harrison, Paula A. Hashimoto, Shizuka Hauck, Jennifer Klatt, Brian J Kok, Kasper Krug, Rainer M Niamir, Aidin O'Farrell, Patrick J. Okayasu, Sana Palomo, Ignacio Pereira, Laura Riordan, Philip Santos Martín, Fernando Selomane, Odirilwe Shin, Yunne-Jai Valle, Mireia climate change agriculture food security assessment biodiversity decision making ecosystem services ecology Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures. 2019 2020-03-13T16:24:39Z 2020-03-13T16:24:39Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/107767 en Open Access Resilience Alliance, Inc. Sitas N, Harmáčková ZV, Anticamara JA, Arneth A, Badola R, Biggs R, Blanchard R, Brotons L, Cantele M, Coetzer K, DasGupta R, den Belder E, Ghosh S, Guisan A, Gundimeda H, Hamann M, Harrison PA, Hashimoto S, Hauck J, Klatt BJ, Kok K, Krug RM, Niamir A, O'Farrell PJ, Pkayasu S, Palomo I, Pereira L, Riordan P, Santos-Martín F, Selomane O, Shin YJ, Valle M. 2019. Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments. Ecology and Society 24(3):35.
spellingShingle climate change
agriculture
food security
assessment
biodiversity
decision making
ecosystem services
ecology
Sitas, Nadia
Harmáčková, Zuzana V
Anticamara, Jonathan A.
Arneth, Almut
Badola, Ruchi
Biggs, Reinette
Blanchard, Ryan
Brotons, Lluis
Cantele, Matthew
Coetzer, Kaera
DasGupta, Rajarshi
Belder, Eefje den
Ghosh, Sonali
Guisan, Antoine
Gundimeda, Haripriya
Hamann, Maike
Harrison, Paula A.
Hashimoto, Shizuka
Hauck, Jennifer
Klatt, Brian J
Kok, Kasper
Krug, Rainer M
Niamir, Aidin
O'Farrell, Patrick J.
Okayasu, Sana
Palomo, Ignacio
Pereira, Laura
Riordan, Philip
Santos Martín, Fernando
Selomane, Odirilwe
Shin, Yunne-Jai
Valle, Mireia
Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments
title Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments
title_full Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments
title_fullStr Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments
title_full_unstemmed Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments
title_short Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments
title_sort exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science policy processes experience across ipbes assessments
topic climate change
agriculture
food security
assessment
biodiversity
decision making
ecosystem services
ecology
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/107767
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