Key determinants of global land-use projections
Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Springer
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/103642 |
| _version_ | 1855541621686272000 |
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| author | Stehfest, Elke Zeist, Willem-Jan van Valin, Hugo Havlik, Petr Popp, Alexander Kyle, Page Tabeau, Andrzej Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Hasegawa, Tomoko Bodirsky, Benjamin L. Calvin, Katherine Doelman, Jonathan C Fujimori, Shinichiro Humpenöder, Florian Lotze-Campen, Hermann Meijl, Hans van Wiebe, Keith D. |
| author_browse | Bodirsky, Benjamin L. Calvin, Katherine Doelman, Jonathan C Fujimori, Shinichiro Hasegawa, Tomoko Havlik, Petr Humpenöder, Florian Kyle, Page Lotze-Campen, Hermann Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Meijl, Hans van Popp, Alexander Stehfest, Elke Tabeau, Andrzej Valin, Hugo Wiebe, Keith D. Zeist, Willem-Jan van |
| author_facet | Stehfest, Elke Zeist, Willem-Jan van Valin, Hugo Havlik, Petr Popp, Alexander Kyle, Page Tabeau, Andrzej Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Hasegawa, Tomoko Bodirsky, Benjamin L. Calvin, Katherine Doelman, Jonathan C Fujimori, Shinichiro Humpenöder, Florian Lotze-Campen, Hermann Meijl, Hans van Wiebe, Keith D. |
| author_sort | Stehfest, Elke |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace103642 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | Springer |
| publisherStr | Springer |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1036422024-10-25T08:05:55Z Key determinants of global land-use projections Stehfest, Elke Zeist, Willem-Jan van Valin, Hugo Havlik, Petr Popp, Alexander Kyle, Page Tabeau, Andrzej Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Hasegawa, Tomoko Bodirsky, Benjamin L. Calvin, Katherine Doelman, Jonathan C Fujimori, Shinichiro Humpenöder, Florian Lotze-Campen, Hermann Meijl, Hans van Wiebe, Keith D. climate change agriculture food security models technological changes agricultural production economic development commodities pastures farmland land use trade agricultural productivity land-use planning prices Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies. 2019-05-15 2019-09-13T15:37:28Z 2019-09-13T15:37:28Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/103642 en Open Access Springer Stehfest E, van Zeist WJ, Valin H, Havlik P, Popp A, Kyle P, Tabeau A, Mason-D'Croz D, Hasegawa T, Bodirsky BL, Calvin K, Doelman JC, Fujimori S, Humpenöder F, Lotze-Campen H, van Meijl H, Wiebe K. 2019. Key determinants of global land-use projections. Nature Communications 10:2166. |
| spellingShingle | climate change agriculture food security models technological changes agricultural production economic development commodities pastures farmland land use trade agricultural productivity land-use planning prices Stehfest, Elke Zeist, Willem-Jan van Valin, Hugo Havlik, Petr Popp, Alexander Kyle, Page Tabeau, Andrzej Mason-D'Croz, Daniel Hasegawa, Tomoko Bodirsky, Benjamin L. Calvin, Katherine Doelman, Jonathan C Fujimori, Shinichiro Humpenöder, Florian Lotze-Campen, Hermann Meijl, Hans van Wiebe, Keith D. Key determinants of global land-use projections |
| title | Key determinants of global land-use projections |
| title_full | Key determinants of global land-use projections |
| title_fullStr | Key determinants of global land-use projections |
| title_full_unstemmed | Key determinants of global land-use projections |
| title_short | Key determinants of global land-use projections |
| title_sort | key determinants of global land use projections |
| topic | climate change agriculture food security models technological changes agricultural production economic development commodities pastures farmland land use trade agricultural productivity land-use planning prices |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/103642 |
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