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Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia

This study investigated that the effects of cochineal invasion and climate change on cactus pear distribution. Rainfall and temperature were projected to near, mid, and end-century with emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) using R-programing language. Average temperature will be increased by 1.7, 2.3...

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Main Authors: Abrha, H., Birhane, E., Zenebe, A., Hagos, H., Girma, A., Aynekulu, Ermias, Alemie, A.
Format: Journal Article
Language:Inglés
Published: Professional Association for Cactus Development 2018
Subjects:
bioclimate
global warming
Online Access:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/102243
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author Abrha, H.
Birhane, E.
Zenebe, A.
Hagos, H.
Girma, A.
Aynekulu, Ermias
Alemie, A.
author_browse Abrha, H.
Alemie, A.
Aynekulu, Ermias
Birhane, E.
Girma, A.
Hagos, H.
Zenebe, A.
author_facet Abrha, H.
Birhane, E.
Zenebe, A.
Hagos, H.
Girma, A.
Aynekulu, Ermias
Alemie, A.
author_sort Abrha, H.
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description This study investigated that the effects of cochineal invasion and climate change on cactus pear distribution. Rainfall and temperature were projected to near, mid, and end-century with emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) using R-programing language. Average temperature will be increased by 1.7, 2.3, and 2.6°C in RCP 4.5 and 2, 2.8, and 4°C in RCP 8.5 at 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099, respectively, and there will be temporal and spatial rainfall variation. The cactus pear distribution will be reduced by 13, 0.51, and 27% during mid-century of RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5, and RCP8.5 of end-century, consistently. But, it will be increased by 0.8% at the end-century of RCP4.5. The impact of climate change in future cactus pear distribution is insignificant. In addition, the probability of cochineal invasion will be increased by about 72, 74, 62, and 94% by mid and end-century of RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. This has a significant impact on future cactus pear distribution. The combined effect of climate change and cochineal invasion will affect 72, 78, 63, and 85% of cactus pear distribution by mid and end-century of RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. It has a significant impact on future cactus pear distribution. Therefore, the study recommends well-designed management strategies to ensure cactus pear survival.
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language Inglés
publishDate 2018
publishDateRange 2018
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publisherStr Professional Association for Cactus Development
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spelling CGSpace1022432024-08-27T10:36:04Z Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia Abrha, H. Birhane, E. Zenebe, A. Hagos, H. Girma, A. Aynekulu, Ermias Alemie, A. bioclimate global warming This study investigated that the effects of cochineal invasion and climate change on cactus pear distribution. Rainfall and temperature were projected to near, mid, and end-century with emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5) using R-programing language. Average temperature will be increased by 1.7, 2.3, and 2.6°C in RCP 4.5 and 2, 2.8, and 4°C in RCP 8.5 at 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099, respectively, and there will be temporal and spatial rainfall variation. The cactus pear distribution will be reduced by 13, 0.51, and 27% during mid-century of RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5, and RCP8.5 of end-century, consistently. But, it will be increased by 0.8% at the end-century of RCP4.5. The impact of climate change in future cactus pear distribution is insignificant. In addition, the probability of cochineal invasion will be increased by about 72, 74, 62, and 94% by mid and end-century of RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. This has a significant impact on future cactus pear distribution. The combined effect of climate change and cochineal invasion will affect 72, 78, 63, and 85% of cactus pear distribution by mid and end-century of RCP4.5 and 8.5, respectively. It has a significant impact on future cactus pear distribution. Therefore, the study recommends well-designed management strategies to ensure cactus pear survival. 2018-11-07 2019-07-22T10:37:59Z 2019-07-22T10:37:59Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/102243 en Open Access application/pdf Professional Association for Cactus Development Abrha, H.; Birhane, E.; Zenebe, A.; Hagos, H.; Girma, A.; Aynekulu, E.; Alemie, A. 2018. Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia. JPACD. 20:128-150. https://doi.org/10.56890/jpacd.v20i.33
spellingShingle bioclimate
global warming
Abrha, H.
Birhane, E.
Zenebe, A.
Hagos, H.
Girma, A.
Aynekulu, Ermias
Alemie, A.
Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia
title Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia
title_full Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia
title_fullStr Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia
title_full_unstemmed Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia
title_short Modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal (Dactylopius coccus Costa) invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear (Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) Mill.) in Northern Ethiopia
title_sort modeling the impacts of climate change and cochineal dactylopius coccus costa invasion on the future distribution of cactus pear opuntia ficus indica l mill in northern ethiopia
topic bioclimate
global warming
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/102243
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