Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa

This study undertakes an ex‐ante evaluation of the effects of alternative technology and policy options on soybean supply and demand in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) to 2050. Current soybean consumption in SSA is dominated by cooking oil followed by soybean cake used as animal feed. Due to weak processin...

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Autores principales: Gbegbelegbe, Sika, Alene, A., Kamara, A., Wiebe, Keith D., Manyong, Victor M., Abdoulaye, Tahirou, Mkandawire, P.
Formato: Journal Article
Lenguaje:Inglés
Publicado: Wiley 2019
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://hdl.handle.net/10568/102121
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author Gbegbelegbe, Sika
Alene, A.
Kamara, A.
Wiebe, Keith D.
Manyong, Victor M.
Abdoulaye, Tahirou
Mkandawire, P.
author_browse Abdoulaye, Tahirou
Alene, A.
Gbegbelegbe, Sika
Kamara, A.
Manyong, Victor M.
Mkandawire, P.
Wiebe, Keith D.
author_facet Gbegbelegbe, Sika
Alene, A.
Kamara, A.
Wiebe, Keith D.
Manyong, Victor M.
Abdoulaye, Tahirou
Mkandawire, P.
author_sort Gbegbelegbe, Sika
collection Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace)
description This study undertakes an ex‐ante evaluation of the effects of alternative technology and policy options on soybean supply and demand in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) to 2050. Current soybean consumption in SSA is dominated by cooking oil followed by soybean cake used as animal feed. Due to weak processing sectors and low soybean yields, the region is currently importing about 70% of its consumption requirements. Based on the results from a geospatial bio‐economic modeling framework, soybean consumption in SSA is projected to more than double by 2050 compared to 2010 due in part to a rising population and rising incomes. On the other hand, supply from domestic production is projected to increase by 80% over the same period. Hence, by 2050, net imports into SSA would be nearly 4 times higher than supply from domestic production. Under a future drier climate, some of the production gains achieved through soybean research and extension would be lost and this would further worsen the soybean demand gap in SSA relative to the baseline. This study shows that relying on conventional breeding alone to increase soybean yields in SSA would not be enough to substantially reduce the future demand gap. A combination of promising innovations affecting the soybean value chain across SSA would be needed to close the soybean demand gap in SSA by 2050 under a drier future climate.
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spelling CGSpace1021212025-11-12T04:47:29Z Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa Gbegbelegbe, Sika Alene, A. Kamara, A. Wiebe, Keith D. Manyong, Victor M. Abdoulaye, Tahirou Mkandawire, P. climate change soybeans production africa south of sahara innovation spatial data models supply chains trade food consumption prices This study undertakes an ex‐ante evaluation of the effects of alternative technology and policy options on soybean supply and demand in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) to 2050. Current soybean consumption in SSA is dominated by cooking oil followed by soybean cake used as animal feed. Due to weak processing sectors and low soybean yields, the region is currently importing about 70% of its consumption requirements. Based on the results from a geospatial bio‐economic modeling framework, soybean consumption in SSA is projected to more than double by 2050 compared to 2010 due in part to a rising population and rising incomes. On the other hand, supply from domestic production is projected to increase by 80% over the same period. Hence, by 2050, net imports into SSA would be nearly 4 times higher than supply from domestic production. Under a future drier climate, some of the production gains achieved through soybean research and extension would be lost and this would further worsen the soybean demand gap in SSA relative to the baseline. This study shows that relying on conventional breeding alone to increase soybean yields in SSA would not be enough to substantially reduce the future demand gap. A combination of promising innovations affecting the soybean value chain across SSA would be needed to close the soybean demand gap in SSA by 2050 under a drier future climate. 2019-11 2019-07-10T08:50:36Z 2019-07-10T08:50:36Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/102121 en Open Access application/pdf Wiley Gbegbelegbe, S., Alene, A., Kamara, A., Wiebe, K., Manyong, V., Abdoulaye, T. & Mkandawire, P. (2019). Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa. Food and Energy Security, 1-16.
spellingShingle climate change
soybeans
production
africa south of sahara
innovation
spatial data
models
supply chains
trade
food consumption
prices
Gbegbelegbe, Sika
Alene, A.
Kamara, A.
Wiebe, Keith D.
Manyong, Victor M.
Abdoulaye, Tahirou
Mkandawire, P.
Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa
title Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa
title_full Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa
title_fullStr Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa
title_full_unstemmed Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa
title_short Ex‐ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub‐Saharan Africa
title_sort ex ante evaluation of promising soybean innovations for sub saharan africa
topic climate change
soybeans
production
africa south of sahara
innovation
spatial data
models
supply chains
trade
food consumption
prices
url https://hdl.handle.net/10568/102121
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