Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes
This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature su...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
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Wiley
2018
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| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/102021 |
| _version_ | 1855533185847263232 |
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| author | Oort, P.A.J. van Zwart, Sander J. |
| author_browse | Oort, P.A.J. van Zwart, Sander J. |
| author_facet | Oort, P.A.J. van Zwart, Sander J. |
| author_sort | Oort, P.A.J. van |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace102021 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2018 |
| publishDateRange | 2018 |
| publishDateSort | 2018 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| publisherStr | Wiley |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1020212025-11-05T06:50:46Z Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes Oort, P.A.J. van Zwart, Sander J. climate rice africa photosynthesis This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (−24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by −21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by −45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (−15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates. 2018-03 2019-07-02T14:56:56Z 2019-07-02T14:56:56Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/102021 en Open Access application/pdf Wiley van Oort, P.A.J., and Zwart, S.J. 2018. Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes. Global Change Biology 24(3): 1029-1045 |
| spellingShingle | climate rice africa photosynthesis Oort, P.A.J. van Zwart, Sander J. Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes |
| title | Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes |
| title_full | Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes |
| title_fullStr | Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes |
| title_short | Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes |
| title_sort | impacts of climate change on rice production in africa and causes of simulated yield changes |
| topic | climate rice africa photosynthesis |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/102021 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT oortpajvan impactsofclimatechangeonriceproductioninafricaandcausesofsimulatedyieldchanges AT zwartsanderj impactsofclimatechangeonriceproductioninafricaandcausesofsimulatedyieldchanges |