Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century
A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability—the time of...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Journal Article |
| Language: | Inglés |
| Published: |
National Academy of Sciences
2019
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/100496 |
| _version_ | 1855536233345712128 |
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| author | Rojas, Maisa Lambert, Fabrice Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Challinor, Andrew J. |
| author_browse | Challinor, Andrew J. Lambert, Fabrice Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Rojas, Maisa |
| author_facet | Rojas, Maisa Lambert, Fabrice Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Challinor, Andrew J. |
| author_sort | Rojas, Maisa |
| collection | Repository of Agricultural Research Outputs (CGSpace) |
| description | A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability—the time of emergence (TOE)—is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1–14% (3–31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically. |
| format | Journal Article |
| id | CGSpace100496 |
| institution | CGIAR Consortium |
| language | Inglés |
| publishDate | 2019 |
| publishDateRange | 2019 |
| publishDateSort | 2019 |
| publisher | National Academy of Sciences |
| publisherStr | National Academy of Sciences |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | CGSpace1004962025-11-12T05:58:34Z Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century Rojas, Maisa Lambert, Fabrice Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Challinor, Andrew J. climate change precipitation agriculture A warming climate will affect regional precipitation and hence food supply. However, only a few regions around the world are currently undergoing precipitation changes that can be attributed to climate change. Knowing when such changes are projected to emerge outside natural variability—the time of emergence (TOE)—is critical for taking effective adaptation measures. Using ensemble climate projections, we determine the TOE of regional precipitation changes globally and in particular for the growing areas of four major crops. We find relatively early (<2040) emergence of precipitation trends for all four crops. Reduced (increased) precipitation trends encompass 1–14% (3–31%) of global production of maize, wheat, rice, and soybean. Comparing results for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6 clearly shows that emissions compatible with the Paris Agreement result in far less cropped land experiencing novel climates. However, the existence of a TOE, even under the lowest emission scenario, and a small probability for early emergence emphasize the urgent need for adaptation measures. We also show how both the urgency of adaptation and the extent of mitigation vary geographically. 2019-04-02 2019-03-21T15:56:22Z 2019-03-21T15:56:22Z Journal Article https://hdl.handle.net/10568/100496 en Open Access application/pdf National Academy of Sciences Rojas, Maisa; Lambert, Fabrice; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian & Challinor, Andrew J. (2019).Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century, Proceeding of the National Academiy of Sciences of the United States of America - PNAS. 1-6 p. |
| spellingShingle | climate change precipitation agriculture Rojas, Maisa Lambert, Fabrice Ramírez Villegas, Julián Armando Challinor, Andrew J. Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century |
| title | Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century |
| title_full | Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century |
| title_fullStr | Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century |
| title_full_unstemmed | Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century |
| title_short | Emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century |
| title_sort | emergence of robust precipitation changes across crop production areas in the 21st century |
| topic | climate change precipitation agriculture |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10568/100496 |
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